Scott Baier, Professor and Associate Dean of Research of Wilbur O. and Ann Powers College of Business at Clemson University provided his annual mid-year economic update. Scott covered trends in GDP, consumption and real disposable income, and household debt, and provided a consumption forecast including the bifurcation of high-income consumer and lower-income households. The drivers of consumption and the affordability crises were discussed, as well as the responsibility of policy makers in supply-side reform. The South Carolina housing affordability crisis was discussed in detail with home process up roughly 60% above pre-COVID levels and Greenville’s median sale price at about $525,000 with price per square foot climbing to 13.5% in the same period.
The investment outlook includes much of the growth in 2025 coming from AI-Equipment, with tariff uncertainty impacting fixed investment, higher petroleum prices potentially slowing investment. The OBBB will have some positive effects on business investment that will increase domestic investment, boost short-term cash flows, and potentially increase domestic supply chains.
The South Carolina labor market has the fastest population growth of any state between July 2024 and July 2025 – 1.5%. Payroll growth has cooled but a record number of South Carolinians are working with Greenville County at 3.7%.
Polls (and internet searches) show that inflation is people’s key concern right now. The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate is to maintain stable prices (2% inflation rate) and maximum employment.
Please see the slide presentation for more details.